Predictive model for falling in Parkinson disease patients

Background/aims Falls are a common complication of advancing Parkinson's disease (PD). Although numerous risk factors are known, reliable predictors of future falls are still lacking. The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate model to predict falling in PD patients. Methods Prospective cohort with forty-nine PD patients. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate predictive performance of the purposed multivariate model. Results The median of PD duration and UPDRS-III score in the cohort was 6 years and 24 points, respectively. Falls occurred in 18 PD patients (30%). Predictive factors for falling identified by univariate analysis were age, PD duration, physical activity, and scores of UPDRS motor, FOG, ACE, IFS, PFAQ and GDS (p-value < 0.001), as well as fear of falling score (p-value = 0.04). The final multivariate model (PD duration, FOG, ACE, and physical activity) showed an AUC = 0.9282 (correctly classified = 89.83%; sensitivity = 92.68%; specificity = 83.33%). Conclusions This study showed that our multivariate model have a high performance to predict falling in a sample of PD patients.