Relationship between malaria epidemiology and the human development index in Colombia and Latin America

The objective of our study was to establish the relationship between the Human Development Index (HDI), Gini coefficient and Unsatisfied Basic Needs (UBN), with the incidence of malaria in Colombia and five endemic countries of Latin America (Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru) between 2005 and 2012. Through an ecological study the HDI was obtained from the data base of the United Nations Development Programme; the Gini index and the UBN were obtained from Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics, and the malaria incidence from the World Health Organization’s programme “Roll Back Malaria” and from the Colombian epidemiological surveillance system. The annual variation of the variables was evaluated, and linear and non-linear regressions (exponentials) were modelled. Upon analysing the data with the regression models, it was noted that countries with higher malaria incidence rates were those with lower values of HDI, the association being significant (r ² =0.4233; p<0.0001). Similarly, it was observed that Colombian departments with higher inequality and poverty rates were those with a higher incidence of malaria (Gini r ² =0.1851; p<0.01; UBN r ² =0.908; p<0.01). An inverse and significant relationship between HDI and malaria morbidity in the countries studied was found, as well as a positive and significant relationship between Gini and UBN with morbidity in these Colombian departments. This information reflects the significant influence of socioeconomic indicators such as HDI, Gini and UBN on the malaria incidence rate.