Association between cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence and the human development index and its components in four endemic states of Venezuela

Objectives. Assess potential relationships between the Human Development Index (HDI) and its components and the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in four endemic States of Venezuela (Mérida, Trujillo, Lara and Sucre) in the period 1994-2003. Material and methods. Socioeconomical data (classified according the World Bank) was obtained from the National Institute of Statistics, and the epidemiological data from the Ministry of Health, both from Venezuela. for this ecological study the annual variation of the variables was assessed and also regression models were done. Results. The HDI varied in the period from 0.6746 in 1994 to 0.8144 in 2003 (p=0.90). During this time an increase in the cumulative incidence of Leishmaniasis was observed, particularly from 1998 (7.3 cases/100,000 pop) to 1999 (11.3 cases/100,000 pop). Analyzing the linear regression models, it was observed that the relationship between epidemiological and social variables was different at States levels. for Mérida and Trujillo it was observed a significant decrease in the CL regard to the increase of literacy (p<0.05), of the gross combined enrollment (p<0.05), life expectancy (p<0.05), money income (p<0.05) and the HDI (p<0.05). Conclusion. This information reflects the significant influence of socioeconomical indicators on the CL incidence at Trujillo and Merida, being an inverse relationship between both types of variables; with an increase or improvement in the socioeconomical indicators, the disease incidence rate decreased.