MÉTODOS DE PROSPECTIVA ESTRATÉGICA Y PARTICIPACIÓN LOCAL EN EL ANÁLISIS DE ESTUDIOS DE FUTURO EN ÁREAS NATURALES PROTEGIDAS

The studies of prospective consider a series of methodological and conceptual proposals, which are applied to different fields of knowledge. Among these, the use of valuation techniques for the management of ecosystem services makes it possible to gather important elements of local perception of conservation elements and of the non-economic values of ecosystems. These aspects can be incorporated into future scenario building exercises through the development of participatory strategic foresight tools, adapted to the cultural conditions of local population leaders and authorities. This research considers a balance of the methodologies for valuing the importance of strategic foresight and social foresight, based on the results achieved in the Salinas y Aguada Blanca National Reserve (Peru). It also includes the limi-tations encountered and a comparison with complementary scenario building tools. This work constitutes as a critical exercise in the face of the capability to reply to similar processes in natural areas. Among the results achieved are the contrast between critical factors and the drivers of change that affect the ecosystem services, and the local perception about the scenarios of services. It concludes that management of biodiversity by the local population is key for the definition of future scenarios in the natural area, but is responsible for defining the use of a service.