TY - JOUR
T1 - Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014
T2 - A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants
AU - NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
AU - Di Cesare, Mariachiara
AU - Bentham, James
AU - Stevens, Gretchen A.
AU - Zhou, Bin
AU - Danaei, Goodarz
AU - Lu, Yuan
AU - Bixby, Honor
AU - Cowan, Melanie J.
AU - Riley, Leanne M.
AU - Hajifathalian, Kaveh
AU - Fortunato, Léa
AU - Taddei, Cristina
AU - Bennett, James E.
AU - Ikeda, Nayu
AU - Khang, Young Ho
AU - Kyobutungi, Catherine
AU - Laxmaiah, Avula
AU - Li, Yanping
AU - Lin, Hsien Ho
AU - Miranda, J. Jaime
AU - Mostafa, Aya
AU - Turley, Maria L.
AU - Paciorek, Christopher J.
AU - Gunter, Marc
AU - Ezzati, Majid
AU - Abdeen, Ziad A.
AU - Hamid, Zargar Abdul
AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.
AU - Acosta-Cazares, Benjamin
AU - Adams, Robert
AU - Aekplakorn, Wichai
AU - Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A.
AU - Ahmadvand, Alireza
AU - Ahrens, Wolfgang
AU - Ali, Mohamed M.
AU - Alkerwi, Ala'a
AU - Alvarez-Pedrerol, Mar
AU - Aly, Eman
AU - Amouyel, Philippe
AU - Amuzu, Antoinette
AU - Andersen, Lars Bo
AU - Anderssen, Sigmund A.
AU - Andrade, Dolores S.
AU - Anjana, Ranjit Mohan
AU - Aounallah-Skhiri, Hajer
AU - Ariansen, Inger
AU - Aris, Tahir
AU - Arlappa, Nimmathota
AU - Arveiler, Dominique
AU - Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © NCD Risk Factor Collaboration
PY - 2016/4/2
Y1 - 2016/4/2
N2 - Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18.5 kg/m2[underweight], 18.5 kg/m2to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2[morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m2(95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m2(24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m2(21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m2(24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m2in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m2(28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m2(21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m2(31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.
AB - Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18.5 kg/m2[underweight], 18.5 kg/m2to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2[morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m2(95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m2(24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m2(21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m2(24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m2in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m2(28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m2(21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m2(31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84962949589&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X
M3 - Artículo
C2 - 27115820
AN - SCOPUS:84962949589
SN - 0140-6736
VL - 387
SP - 1377
EP - 1396
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
IS - 10026
ER -