TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk of human leptospirosis in Colombia
T2 - Spatiotemporal analysis and related hydroclimatic factors
AU - Montenegro-Idrogo, Juan José
AU - Bonilla-Aldana, D. Katterine
AU - Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s).
PY - 2024/9/1
Y1 - 2024/9/1
N2 - Background: Leptospirosis is an endemic zoonosis in tropical areas that is mainly related to rural activities; nevertheless, human leptospirosis (HL) outbreaks differ among regions. In Colombia, HL notifications are mandatory. Our objective was to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of HL in Colombia during 2007-2018 and its relationship with the main hydroclimatic variables. Methods: We determined the estimated incidence and lethality of HL according to department and year. The Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of an autoregressive model (STAR) model included HL cases and hydroclimatic factors (average temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) for quarterly periods. Results: During the study period, 10 586 HL cases were registered (estimated incidence: 1.75 cases x 105) and 243 deaths by HL (lethality 2.3%). The STAR model found association of HL risk with temperature (RR:6.80; 95% CI 3.57 to 12.48) and space. Quindío and three other Amazonian departments (Guainía, Guaviare and Putumayo) had a positive relationship with a significant number of HL cases, adjusted for quarterly precipitation and humidity. Conclusion: Spatial analysis showed a high risk of HL in departments of the western Andean Colombian regions. By contrast, in the spatiotemporal model, a higher HL risk was associated with temperature and departments of the North Colombian Amazon regions and Quindío in the Colombian Andean region.
AB - Background: Leptospirosis is an endemic zoonosis in tropical areas that is mainly related to rural activities; nevertheless, human leptospirosis (HL) outbreaks differ among regions. In Colombia, HL notifications are mandatory. Our objective was to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of HL in Colombia during 2007-2018 and its relationship with the main hydroclimatic variables. Methods: We determined the estimated incidence and lethality of HL according to department and year. The Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of an autoregressive model (STAR) model included HL cases and hydroclimatic factors (average temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) for quarterly periods. Results: During the study period, 10 586 HL cases were registered (estimated incidence: 1.75 cases x 105) and 243 deaths by HL (lethality 2.3%). The STAR model found association of HL risk with temperature (RR:6.80; 95% CI 3.57 to 12.48) and space. Quindío and three other Amazonian departments (Guainía, Guaviare and Putumayo) had a positive relationship with a significant number of HL cases, adjusted for quarterly precipitation and humidity. Conclusion: Spatial analysis showed a high risk of HL in departments of the western Andean Colombian regions. By contrast, in the spatiotemporal model, a higher HL risk was associated with temperature and departments of the North Colombian Amazon regions and Quindío in the Colombian Andean region.
KW - disease clusters
KW - epidemiology
KW - leptospirosis
KW - spatiotemporal analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85203028226&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/trstmh/trae013
DO - 10.1093/trstmh/trae013
M3 - Artículo
C2 - 38557833
AN - SCOPUS:85203028226
SN - 0035-9203
VL - 118
SP - 605
EP - 615
JO - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
JF - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
IS - 9
ER -
