Method for the Analysis of Health Personnel Availability in a Pandemic Crisis Scenario through Monte Carlo Simulation

Tamara Pando-Ezcurra, Wilver Auccahuasi, Esther Rosa Saenz Arenas, Emilio Augusto Rosario Pacahuala, Erica Rojana González Ponce de León, Sandro Olaya Cotera, Rosalynn Ornella Flores Castañeda, Lucas Herrera

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

During pandemic times, difficulties and problems related to the health sector are evident as the number of patients coming to health centers is higher compared to normal situations. This increase in the number of patients is typical of the pandemic, due to the high level of contagion in the population. Health personnel have a higher risk of infection, due to their sharing the work of caring for positive patients, so the infection rate is much higher. Hence, it remains necessary to understand the behavior of infection of health personnel, in order to be prepared to deal with the care of patients. Accordingly, in this research, we present a method to estimate different scenarios of infection and assess the probability of occurrence, so we can estimate the infection rate of health personnel. We present a simulation of 21 possible scenarios with 100 workers and a minimum of 80% needed to guarantee patient care. The results show that it is more likely that a 50% contagion scenario will occur, with an acceptable probability of 20%.

Original languageEnglish
Article number8299
JournalApplied Sciences (Switzerland)
Volume12
Issue number16
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2022
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • inputs
  • model
  • probability
  • risk
  • simulation

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