TY - JOUR
T1 - Leukemia mortality in children from Latin America
T2 - trends and predictions to 2030
AU - Torres-Roman, J. Smith
AU - Valcarcel, Bryan
AU - Guerra-Canchari, Pedro
AU - Santos, Camila Alves Dos
AU - Barbosa, Isabelle Ribeiro
AU - La Vecchia, Carlo
AU - McGlynn, Katherine A.
AU - de Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
PY - 2020/12/1
Y1 - 2020/12/1
N2 - Background: Reports suggest that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have not reduced leukemia mortality compared to high-income countries. However, updated trends remain largely unknown in the region. Given that leukemia is the leading cause of cancer-related death in LAC children, we evaluated mortality trends in children (0-14y) from 15 LAC countries for the period 2000–2017 and predicted mortality to 2030. Methods: We retrieved cancer mortality data using the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Mortality rates (standardized to the world standard SEGI population) were analyzed for 15 LAC countries. We evaluated the average mortality rates for the last 5 years (2013–2017). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate leukemia mortality trends and provide an estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions until 2030. Results: Between 2013 and 2017, the highest mortality rates were reported in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Peru. Upward mortality trends were reported in Nicaragua (EAPC by 2.9% in boys, and EAPC by 2.0% in girls), and Peru (EAPC by 1.4% in both sexes). Puerto Rico experienced large declines in mortality among both boys (EAPC by − 9.7%), and girls (EAPC by − 6.0%). Leukemia mortality will increase in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay by 2030. Conclusion: Leukemia mortality is predicted to increase in some LAC countries by 2030. Interventions to prevent this outcome should be tailor to reduce the socioeconomic inequalities and ensure universal healthcare coverage.
AB - Background: Reports suggest that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have not reduced leukemia mortality compared to high-income countries. However, updated trends remain largely unknown in the region. Given that leukemia is the leading cause of cancer-related death in LAC children, we evaluated mortality trends in children (0-14y) from 15 LAC countries for the period 2000–2017 and predicted mortality to 2030. Methods: We retrieved cancer mortality data using the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Mortality rates (standardized to the world standard SEGI population) were analyzed for 15 LAC countries. We evaluated the average mortality rates for the last 5 years (2013–2017). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate leukemia mortality trends and provide an estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions until 2030. Results: Between 2013 and 2017, the highest mortality rates were reported in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Peru. Upward mortality trends were reported in Nicaragua (EAPC by 2.9% in boys, and EAPC by 2.0% in girls), and Peru (EAPC by 1.4% in both sexes). Puerto Rico experienced large declines in mortality among both boys (EAPC by − 9.7%), and girls (EAPC by − 6.0%). Leukemia mortality will increase in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay by 2030. Conclusion: Leukemia mortality is predicted to increase in some LAC countries by 2030. Interventions to prevent this outcome should be tailor to reduce the socioeconomic inequalities and ensure universal healthcare coverage.
KW - Child
KW - Latin America
KW - Leukemia
KW - Mortality rate
KW - Trends, epidemiology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85095611457&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s12887-020-02408-y
DO - 10.1186/s12887-020-02408-y
M3 - Artículo
C2 - 33160309
AN - SCOPUS:85095611457
SN - 1471-2431
VL - 20
JO - BMC Pediatrics
JF - BMC Pediatrics
IS - 1
M1 - 511
ER -
