Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting

Objective. To develop and validate a risk score for detecting cases of undiagnosed diabetes in a resource-constrained country. Methods. Two population-based studies in Peruvian population aged ≥35 years were used in the analysis: the ENINBSC survey (n = 2,472) and the CRONICAS Cohort Study (n = 2,945). Fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L was used to diagnose diabetes in both studies. Coefficients for risk score were derived from the ENINBSC data and then the performance was validated using both baseline and follow-up data of the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Results. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 2.0% in the ENINBSC survey and 2.9% in the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Predictors of undiagnosed diabetes were age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference. Score values ranged from 0 to 4, with an optimal cutoff ≥2 and had a moderate performance when applied in the CRONICAS baseline data (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.62-0.73; sensitivity 70%; specificity 59%). When predicting incident cases, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61-0.71), with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 59%. Conclusions. A simple nonblood based risk score based on age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference can be used as a simple screening tool for undiagnosed and incident cases of diabetes in Peru.