TY - JOUR
T1 - Cervical cancer mortality among young women in Latin America and the Caribbean
T2 - trend analysis from 1997 to 2030
AU - Torres-Roman, J. Smith
AU - Ronceros-Cardenas, Luz
AU - Valcarcel, Bryan
AU - Bazalar-Palacios, Janina
AU - Ybaseta-Medina, Jorge
AU - Carioli, Greta
AU - La Vecchia, Carlo
AU - Alvarez, Christian S.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Background: Cervical cancer continues to show a high burden among young women worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Limited data is available describing cervical cancer mortality among young women in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The purpose of this study was to examine the mortality trends of cervical cancer among young women in LAC and predict mortality rates to 2030. Methods: Deaths from cervical cancer were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 women-years were estimated in women aged 20–44 years using the world standard population for 16 countries (and territories) in LAC from 1997 to 2017. We estimated the average mortality rates for the last 4 years (2014–2017). Joinpoint regression models were used to identify significant changes in mortality trends. Nordpred method was used for the prediction of the mortality rates to 2030. Results: Between 2014 and 2017, Paraguay and Venezuela had the highest mortality rates of cervical cancer, whereas Puerto Rico had the lowest rates. Overall, most of the LAC countries showed downward trends of cervical cancer mortality over the entire period. Significant decreases were observed in Chile (Average annual percent change [AAPC]: − 2.4%), Colombia (AAPC: − 2.0%), Cuba (AAPC: − 3.6%), El Salvador (AAPC: − 3.1%), Mexico (AAPC: − 3.9%), Nicaragua (AAPC: − 1.7%), Panama (AAPC: − 1.7%), and Peru (AAPC: − 2.2%). In contrast, Brazil (AAPC: + 0.8%) and Paraguay (AAPC: + 3.7%) showed significant upward trends. By 2030, mortality rates are not predicted to further decrease in some LAC countries, including Argentina, Paraguay, and Venezuela. Conclusions: Mortality trends of cervical cancer among young women have large variability in LAC countries. Cervical cancer screening programs have a high priority for the region. Primary and secondary prevention in the community are necessary to accelerate a reduction of cervical cancer mortality by 2030.
AB - Background: Cervical cancer continues to show a high burden among young women worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Limited data is available describing cervical cancer mortality among young women in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The purpose of this study was to examine the mortality trends of cervical cancer among young women in LAC and predict mortality rates to 2030. Methods: Deaths from cervical cancer were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 women-years were estimated in women aged 20–44 years using the world standard population for 16 countries (and territories) in LAC from 1997 to 2017. We estimated the average mortality rates for the last 4 years (2014–2017). Joinpoint regression models were used to identify significant changes in mortality trends. Nordpred method was used for the prediction of the mortality rates to 2030. Results: Between 2014 and 2017, Paraguay and Venezuela had the highest mortality rates of cervical cancer, whereas Puerto Rico had the lowest rates. Overall, most of the LAC countries showed downward trends of cervical cancer mortality over the entire period. Significant decreases were observed in Chile (Average annual percent change [AAPC]: − 2.4%), Colombia (AAPC: − 2.0%), Cuba (AAPC: − 3.6%), El Salvador (AAPC: − 3.1%), Mexico (AAPC: − 3.9%), Nicaragua (AAPC: − 1.7%), Panama (AAPC: − 1.7%), and Peru (AAPC: − 2.2%). In contrast, Brazil (AAPC: + 0.8%) and Paraguay (AAPC: + 3.7%) showed significant upward trends. By 2030, mortality rates are not predicted to further decrease in some LAC countries, including Argentina, Paraguay, and Venezuela. Conclusions: Mortality trends of cervical cancer among young women have large variability in LAC countries. Cervical cancer screening programs have a high priority for the region. Primary and secondary prevention in the community are necessary to accelerate a reduction of cervical cancer mortality by 2030.
KW - Cervical neoplasm
KW - Forecast
KW - Latin America and the Caribbean
KW - Mortality
KW - Trends
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85122964461&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s12889-021-12413-0
DO - 10.1186/s12889-021-12413-0
M3 - Artículo
AN - SCOPUS:85122964461
SN - 1471-2458
VL - 22
JO - BMC Public Health
JF - BMC Public Health
IS - 1
M1 - 113
ER -